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President Trump and the Future of Legal Gaming by Professor I Nelson Rose

© Copyright 2016, all rights reserved worldwide.  Gambling and the Law® is a registered trademark of Professor I. Nelson Rose, www.GamblingAndTheLaw.com.  Published in Gaming Law Review and Economics, Vol. 20, No. 10 at pp. (December 2016).


First, the facts:

          Former casino owner Donald J. Trump won the most Electoral College votes.  Hillary Rodham Clinton beat him by more than 1.5 million popular votes.  But Trump will be inaugurated President on Friday January 20, 2017.  The Republican Party lost seats in Congress but will keep control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

          Trump’s election may feel like a shocking surprise, but the best polls accurately predicted this result.  The leading pollster, Nate Silver and his 538.com, consistently and repeatedly emphasized that Trump had a 30% chance of winning. Everyone connected with the business of legal gambling, a business based on probabilities, knows that a 30% chance is something that happens all the time.  A casino patron has much worse odds of betting on Red at Roulette and having Red come up three times in a row.  In fact, there was a greater chance of Trump winning the Presidency than of a player betting on Red and winning just two times in a row.

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